U.S. hoteliers should plan for modest rate growth in 2026, but continued cost pressures are expected to keep profitability under strain.
The outlook was underscored during the "The Numbers: What to Expect in 2026 and Beyond" discussion at the 2026 Americas Lodging Investment Summit, where industry forecasters shared their expectations for the year ahead.
- STR and Tourism Economics project 0.6% full-year RevPAR growth
- Average daily rate (ADR) is expected to grow 1%
- Inflation is projected at approximately 2.4%
Why ADR Matters More Than Ever
In many markets, the most important story in 2026 will be on the rate side. While ADR growth is projected to be positive, it remains below expected inflation—meaning the industry's pricing power may not fully offset rising expenses.
Margin Pressure Continues
When rate growth trails inflation, hotels typically feel it first in the margins. Owners and operators should anticipate continued pressure from labor and operating costs, even if top-line metrics remain slightly positive.
What Hotels Can Do Now
As we advise clients at Swauger Consulting Services, the path forward is less about waiting for demand to "bail out" the P&L and more about tightening the fundamentals: disciplined pricing, a clear segmentation strategy, and a proactive approach to managing expenses.
For many properties, the winners in 2026 will be those that treat forecasting as an operating plan—aligning revenue strategy, staffing, and budgets to protect profitability even in a low-growth environment.